Today’s High Stakes Election in New York

Today’s election in the rural 23d Congressional District at the far northern edge of New York State could send a cold wind through the halls of Congress, as Speaker Pelosi attempts to ramp up  a floor vote to pass her 2,000 page bill empowering government to take over American Health Care.

If you’re unfamiliar with the background of the New York 23d can get a quick summary from Yesterday’s article. History teaches that this election should be problematic for the Republicans because:

• Dede Scozzafava, the candidate listed on the ballot as representing the Republican Party has dropped out of race and thrown her support to the Democrat.
• Doug Hoffman, the Candidate who now represents the Republican party is shown on today’s ballot as representing the Conservative Party.
• The Republican National Committee spent nearly a million dollars promoting Ms. Scozzafava.  Then, on the last Saturday before the election, the RNC suddenly switched its support to Mr. Hoffman.
• Some voters mailed in absentee ballots before Ms. Scozzafava dropped out of the race.
• Some Republican voters may go to the polls today not even knowing Scozzafava dropped out of the race.
• There is no confusion on the Democrat side and Barack Obama won this district in last year’s Presidential election.
  

Media polls are notoriously inaccurate in this type of special election because turnout is usually much lower than average, so all the confident predictions of politicians and talking heads add up to a lot hot air.

If Hoffman overcomes these problems and wins the election it will send chills up the spines of Democrats in Congress.  Hoffman could be the straw that breaks the Democrats’ health care back, even before he casts his first vote as a Congressman.